Tue, Jan 28, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Anaheim Ducks 6, Seattle Kraken 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 28 | 36 | 19 | 623 |
| SEA | 37 | 011 | 112 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23ANATroy TerryAssists: Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 6:43SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Brandon Montour · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 8:20SEAMitchell StephensAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Tye Kartye · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 11:59ANACutter GauthierAssists: Robby Fabbri · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 14:01SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 1:04ANAMason McTavishAssists: Ryan Strome, Jackson LaCombe · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 5:39ANARobby FabbriAssists: Mason McTavish · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P2 7:58ANAJackson LaCombeGWGAssists: Isac Lundeström, Brett Leason · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 6:15SEAShane WrightPPAssists: Jared McCann, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 18:44ANAFrank VatranoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:30SEAJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:30ANAJackson LaCombe: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:21SEAJosh Mahura: Holding2 min
- P1 18:57SEAJared McCann: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:49ANAJackson LaCombe: Interference2 min
- P2 15:30SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:30ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:28ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:48ANAJackson LaCombe: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry11:04
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson7:43
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier10:54
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason7:59
xG 0.10–0.37 (22%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe13:54
xG 0.56–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov12:55
xG 0.23–0.64 (26%)attempts 5–14goals 1–3
- Dumoulin – Helleson12:37
xG 0.17–0.95 (15%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Beniers12:35
xG 0.41–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky5:34
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Stephens – Tanev – Kartye3:27
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- McCann – Tolvanen – Wright3:48
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn13:39
xG 0.77–0.10 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Montour – Evans13:56
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Montour – Dunn2:25
xG 0.01–0.09 (9%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).