Wed, Jan 29, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 0, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 06 | 08 | 024 |
| NJD | 07 | 413 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:54NJDOndrej PalatPPGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 6:27NJDLuke HughesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 12:41NJDNathan BastianPPAssists: Timo Meier, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.40 xG0–3
- P2 13:43NJDDawson MercerAssists: Timo Meier, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 1:58NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.21 xG0–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 6:45NJDTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:26PHIMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:00NJDCurtis Lazar: Interference2 min
- P2 2:24PHITyson Foerster: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:47NJDJack Hughes: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:06NJDKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:06PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:06NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:06NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:06PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:06PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:56PHIJamie Drysdale: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:56NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:56NJDStefan Noesen: Interference2 min
- P2 10:57PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:35PHINick Seeler: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mercer won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Hathaway – Richard4:23
xG 0.55–0.01 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Michkov2:50
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost4:38
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Hathaway – Farabee2:25
xG 0.01–0.08 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Drysdale15:58
xG 0.87–0.50 (64%)attempts 13–19goals 0–2
- Johnson – Seeler10:56
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – York12:05
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Meier – Mercer9:34
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes8:09
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- MacDermid – Lazar – Bastian8:49
xG 0.02–0.32 (6%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Cotter8:55
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pesce14:45
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:05
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Hughes11:54
xG 0.28–1.28 (18%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).