Thu, Jan 30, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 6, Boston Bruins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 011 | 46 | 628 |
| BOS | 19 | 011 | 18 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55WPGVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Cole Perfetti · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:31WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 15:34BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 0:11BOSElias LindholmSHAssists: Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 0:35WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 1:17WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Poke, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 5:57WPGParker FordAssists: Alex Iafallo, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
- P3 19:23WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.69 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:19BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:18WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:16BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:30WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:57BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:45BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:45BOSBrad Marchand: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:31WPGMason Appleton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beecher won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:15
xG 1.07–0.37 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:07
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Gustafsson – Ford5:46
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Appleton – Kupari10:04
xG 0.04–0.55 (7%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk13:52
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Stanley2:30
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Morrissey3:33
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Brazeau – Poitras9:12
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Koepke – Beecher5:45
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie13:56
xG 1.08–1.22 (47%)attempts 26–17goals 0–2
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm11:01
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zadorov – Peeke14:26
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Carlo – Wotherspoon13:02
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei15:00
xG 0.73–1.13 (39%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).