Thu, Jan 30, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 113 | 313 | 02 | 435 |
| OTT | 011 | 314 | 17 | 12 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:08OTTRidly GreigPPAssists: David Perron, Thomas Chabot · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 7:43WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:37OTTJosh NorrisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 18:15OTTShane PintoSHAssists: Josh Norris, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 7:58WSHDylan StromePPAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 10:38OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 13:01WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 14:31WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 1:46OTTThomas ChabotGWGAssists: Shane Pinto, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:12WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 3:50WSHDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:39OTTDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:45WSHTaylor Raddysh: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:35OTTRidly Greig: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:53OTTMatthew Highmore: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:24OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:37WSHJohn Carlson: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:01WSHMartin Fehérváry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:50OTTJosh Norris: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:00WSHTaylor Raddysh: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:03OTTRidly Greig: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:14WSHAliaksei Protas: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Raddysh – Frank4:28
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas10:00
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome10:24
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime7:37
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin11:15
xG 0.65–0.15 (81%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Roy – Fehérváry11:26
xG 0.53–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Carlson – Chychrun2:39
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle7:59
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig9:15
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Norris – Batherson7:39
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle3:05
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanderson – Zub11:23
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot15:44
xG 0.15–0.76 (16%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo10:52
xG 0.10–1.13 (8%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).