Thu, Jan 30, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 13 | 011 | 16 | 220 |
| CAR | 17 | 211 | 09 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:57CARSeth JarvisSHAssists: Juha Jaaska · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 18:38CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Nick Foligno, Jason Dickinson · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 4:52CARMikko RantanenAssists: Jack Roslovic, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 5:59CARJaccob SlavinGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Juha Jaaska · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 6:29CHIConnor BedardAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:15CARShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:37CARJackson Blake: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:35CHILukas Reichel: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:20CHINick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:50CARJaccob Slavin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev10:20
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Nazar – Bedard6:05
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Foligno – Donato – Reichel3:10
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Donato – Kurashev – Dach6:25
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic5:33
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Allan14:13
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Martinez – Jones12:55
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRobinson – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov12:17
xG 0.94–0.27 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Rantanen – Roslovic – Blake13:09
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis11:55
xG 0.19–0.10 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Suzuki – Jaaska2:06
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin19:15
xG 0.87–0.20 (81%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker10:57
xG 0.83–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield16:27
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).