Thu, Jan 30, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Vegas Golden Knights 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 06 | 07 | 13 | 224 |
| VGK | 112 | 07 | 07 | 00 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58VGKTomas HertlAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Nicolas Hague · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 18:34CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- OT 0:52CBJCole SillingerGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.43 xG2–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:27CBJMathieu Olivier: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:48VGKTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Danforth – Pyyhtia9:42
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Del Bel Belluz10:34
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:27
xG 0.80–1.09 (43%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Sillinger11:09
xG 0.13–0.45 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk14:59
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Severson – Christiansen13:17
xG 0.36–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Werenski – Fabbro21:34
xG 0.60–1.07 (36%)attempts 17–25goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel14:38
xG 0.89–0.45 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev13:12
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Pearson – Howden – Burke4:31
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy4:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin20:46
xG 1.22–0.40 (75%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:14
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud13:45
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).