Thu, Jan 30, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
San Jose Sharks 2, Seattle Kraken 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 09 | 18 | 228 |
| SEA | 18 | 417 | 18 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:55SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:55SJSCarl GrundstromAssists: Will Smith, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:03SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 2:54SEABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Shane Wright · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 5:58SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 7:52SEABrandon MontourPPAssists: Jared McCann, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.21 xG1–5
- P3 8:06SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 12:18SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:47SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:39SJSNikolai Kovalenko: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:39SJSHenry Thrun: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:39SEAVince Dunn: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:27SJSLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:05SEAMatty Beniers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Eklund – Celebrini13:30
xG 0.98–0.38 (72%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Kunin – Grundstrom4:09
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- White – Grundstrom – Duehr4:48
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Kunin – Kovalenko8:08
xG 0.08–0.61 (12%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Ferraro2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Ceci – Walman15:01
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
- Vlasic – Thrun13:40
xG 0.19–0.58 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:15
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Wright9:55
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers12:47
xG 0.73–0.48 (60%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Stephens – Tanev – Kartye7:03
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour19:34
xG 1.13–0.95 (54%)attempts 24–22goals 1–1
- Mahura – Fleury12:19
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:18
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).