Fri, Jan 31, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 3, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 111 | 29 | 329 |
| DAL | 17 | 13 | 36 | 516 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:12DALOskar BäckAssists: Colin Blackwell · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 5:08VANConor GarlandAssists: Nils Hoglander, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 16:29DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 4:04DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 16:33DALRoope HintzENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–4
- P3 17:51VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 19:07DALJason RobertsonENAssists: Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.60 xG2–5
- P3 19:56VANCarson SoucyAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Danton Heinen · Slap, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:21DALMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P2 7:58DALKyle Capobianco: Holding2 min
- P2 11:14DALKyle Capobianco: Interference2 min
- P2 15:38VANDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:33VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P3 10:45DALLian Bichsel: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:25DALBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson11:31
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Heinen – Räty6:04
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Blueger – Karlsson – Hoglander5:23
xG 0.03–0.18 (13%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter9:02
xG 0.29–0.44 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Hronek11:34
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Myers – Hronek2:37
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes12:07
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston9:48
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Steel – Stankoven10:27
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Bourque8:52
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Harley2:27
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lindell – Bichsel8:33
xG 0.51–0.44 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley8:47
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).