Sat, Feb 1, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 3, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 02 | 212 | 325 |
| BOS | 28 | 210 | 27 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:21BOSCharlie McAvoyPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 10:55NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 17:09BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Matthew Poitras, Brandon Carlo · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 3:39BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Andrew Peeke, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 17:10BOSPavel ZachaPPGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 0:35NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 1:21BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Matthew Poitras · Slap, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 10:47NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Will Borgen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 16:38BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:19NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:05NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:33BOSMorgan Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:45NYRWill Borgen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:17BOSMatthew Poitras: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Panarin12:30
xG 1.52–0.50 (75%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Cuylle2:08
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Trocheck – Lafrenière10:11
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Kreider – Trocheck – Lafrenière2:27
xG 0.08–0.17 (30%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Miller13:14
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller6:36
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Borgen – Lindgren4:48
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Wahlstrom – Poitras7:16
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Brazeau – Koepke – Beecher5:42
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:23
xG 0.49–0.86 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm12:29
xG 0.43–1.16 (27%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Lohrei14:37
xG 0.94–0.76 (55%)attempts 25–14goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Carlo2:45
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carlo – Callahan5:10
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).