Sat, Feb 1, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 213 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 530 |
| WSH | 06 | 210 | 212 | 01 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:13WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:41WPGDylan SambergAssists: Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 1:12WSHPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: John Carlson, Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 4:03WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 4:54WSHTaylor RaddyshAssists: Matt Roy · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 1:10WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 7:26WSHTom WilsonAssists: Dylan Strome, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 12:21WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, Matt Roy · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 1:57WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.37 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:48WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:46WPGDylan Samberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:04WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:33WPGColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:33WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:38
xG 1.21–0.20 (86%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Iafallo – Gustafsson – Ford6:49
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Appleton – Kupari12:55
xG 0.25–0.52 (32%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi15:17
xG 0.73–1.18 (38%)attempts 15–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk18:03
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 24–9goals 2–0
- Miller – Stanley11:18
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey18:20
xG 0.74–1.29 (37%)attempts 17–20goals 1–4
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome9:52
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas11:01
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Eller – Raddysh – Frank7:46
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime10:35
xG 0.16–0.88 (15%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin13:28
xG 1.04–0.16 (87%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Roy – Chychrun5:47
xG 0.63–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry4:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).