Sun, Feb 2, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 19 | 27 | 324 |
| BUF | 312 | 115 | 07 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Owen Power, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 15:50BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Tage Thompson, Dennis Gilbert · Poke, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 19:31BUFRyan McLeodSHAssists: Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 4:38NJDPaul CotterAssists: Justin Dowling, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 17:25BUFJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 0:18NJDPaul CotterAssists: Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 5:32NJDJack HughesSHAssists: Jesper Bratt · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:58BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P1 17:48BUFBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:48NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:35BUFJason Zucker: Interference2 min
- P2 15:13NJDStefan Noesen: Holding2 min
- P3 5:11NJDStefan Noesen: Match penalty5 min
- P3 11:43BUFAlex Tuch: Interference2 min
- P3 15:25BUFBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:42NJDTimo Meier: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Mercer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Meier – Mercer9:19
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Cotter7:22
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- MacDermid – Lazar – Bastian5:47
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes6:14
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Hughes9:07
xG 0.53–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pesce11:51
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler10:09
xG 0.91–0.81 (53%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Tuch – Cozens10:19
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – McLeod – Krebs5:49
xG 0.03–0.05 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson3:57
xG 0.01–0.08 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Peterka – Kulich6:49
xG 0.85–1.28 (40%)attempts 15–18goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power6:02
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Bryson6:33
xG 0.10–0.07 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Byram – Power5:03
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).