Sun, Feb 2, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 210 | 06 | 07 | 223 |
| ANA | 05 | 211 | 16 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:35MTLJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 14:57MTLChristian DvorakPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 13:37ANAMason McTavishAssists: Alex Killorn, Leo Carlsson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:17ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Ryan Strome, Trevor Zegras · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 11:11ANAAlex KillornGWGAssists: Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:54MTLBrendan Gallagher: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:15MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:15ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:16ANATrevor Zegras: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:18ANAJansen Harkins: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:13MTLJake Evans: Holding2 min
- P2 15:11ANAJacob Trouba: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00MTLKirby Dach: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:54MTLLane Hutson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Newhook2:19
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Armia – Anderson – Evans2:42
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta5:20
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:58
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Struble7:49
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Carrier – Xhekaj11:11
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Struble – Hutson2:09
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Zegras11:30
xG 0.44–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Lundeström – Leason9:37
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Gauthier4:37
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – McTavish – Carlsson8:37
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe13:33
xG 0.42–0.18 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger13:19
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson12:10
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).