Sun, Feb 2, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
New York Islanders 3, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 316 | 013 | 334 |
| FLA | 214 | 212 | 27 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:52FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 3:10NYIKyle MacLeanAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 10:00NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Casey Cizikas, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 14:51NYIMarc GatcombAssists: Adam Pelech, Maxim Tsyplakov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 17:52FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 19:09FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 10:41FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 18:21FLAMatthew TkachukENAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:00FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:05FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:38NYIMarc Gatcomb: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:33NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:33FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P3 10:29NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:06FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – MacLean – Gatcomb7:06
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Holmstrom9:05
xG 0.60–0.32 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov9:40
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- Lee – Duclair – Horvat12:07
xG 0.64–1.00 (39%)attempts 13–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Romanov9:04
xG 1.04–0.51 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Cholowski – Romanov4:33
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Boqvist4:51
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:57
xG 0.89–0.53 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Boqvist10:46
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell10:37
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich8:05
xG 0.00–0.48 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:30
xG 1.00–0.53 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola15:01
xG 0.44–0.73 (37%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis10:46
xG 0.39–0.78 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).