Sun, Feb 2, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vegas Golden Knights 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 114 | 115 | 07 | 236 |
| NYR | 07 | 19 | 312 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:41VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Mark Stone, Pavel Dorofeyev · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:18NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Adam Fox, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:16VGKJack EichelAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 5:04NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 11:33NYRK'Andre MillerGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 18:19NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:33NYRMatt Rempe: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:33VGKShea Theodore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:36NYRRyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03VGKBrett Howden: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:07VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:07NYRWill Cuylle: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:13VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Saad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Roy – Lavoie9:23
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Saad – Howden12:19
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev9:02
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Kolesar14:18
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore19:38
xG 1.07–0.47 (69%)attempts 25–19goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Whitecloud13:15
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague14:36
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Panarin13:09
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kreider – Brodzinski – Cuylle7:18
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Carrick – Vesey – Rempe7:22
xG 0.02–0.27 (8%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Trocheck – Lafrenière12:38
xG 0.13–0.88 (13%)attempts 7–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Borgen – Miller16:39
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:29
xG 0.44–0.89 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Vaakanainen – Schneider17:00
xG 0.12–0.69 (15%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).