Sun, Feb 2, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 29 | 014 | 330 |
| DAL | 110 | 217 | 212 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43CBJCole SillingerAssists: Kent Johnson, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:36DALMason MarchmentAssists: Lian Bichsel, Mavrik Bourque · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:58CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 6:03DALLogan StankovenAssists: Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 12:02CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Mikael Pyyhtia, Justin Danforth · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 15:49DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Thomas Harley, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 11:22DALEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Thomas Harley, Ilya Lyubushkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 15:47DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:11CBJDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:28DALMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:50CBJDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:35CBJJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:03DALJason Robertson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:23DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli9:32
xG 1.03–0.52 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Voronkov – Johnson – Fantilli4:34
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Danforth – Pyyhtia7:04
xG 0.41–0.38 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Danforth – Sillinger2:20
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk6:57
xG 0.52–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Severson – Christiansen9:09
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Severson – Mateychuk8:00
xG 1.00–0.95 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Stankoven4:02
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment3:27
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Steel – Bäck – Stankoven5:30
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque3:10
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Bichsel12:54
xG 0.91–0.48 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Lyubushkin – Harley11:55
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Ceci – Lindell17:51
xG 0.52–1.15 (31%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).