Sun, Feb 2, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 3, Seattle Kraken 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 318 | 011 | 06 | 335 |
| SEA | 08 | 112 | 111 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:03CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:43CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 17:56CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 14:31SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Josh Mahura · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 5:41SEABrandon TanevAssists: Jared McCann, Shane Wright · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:27SEABrandon Montour: Interference2 min
- P1 10:46CGYMatt Coronato: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:18SEAJared McCann: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:18CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:18SEAJared McCann: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:43SEAJamie Oleksiak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:43SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 0:00CGYMartin Pospisil: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:29SEAKaapo Kakko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:05CGYDan Vladar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:43SEAShane Wright: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Pospisil – Sharangovich8:27
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato9:15
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Lomberg – Rooney – Klapka4:33
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Farabee10:09
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 8–24goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPachal – Miromanov7:15
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Bean17:21
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Hanley – Pachal2:01
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – McCann – Wright7:52
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Stephens – Tanev – Kartye2:28
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers12:10
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen7:57
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Oleksiak7:45
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Montour – Dunn10:22
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Mahura – Fleury6:06
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).