Tue, Feb 4, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Minnesota Wild 0, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 014 | 014 | 036 |
| BOS | 014 | 214 | 17 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:46BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Matthew Poitras · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 14:14BOSTrent FredericAssists: Matthew Poitras, Brandon Carlo · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 19:14BOSMorgan GeekieENUnassisted · Snap, 0.45 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:00BOSOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:27MINZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:17MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P3 1:36MINMarco Rossi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:55BOSMorgan Geekie: Interference2 min
- P3 6:48BOSNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:12BOSOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Foligno – Rossi7:32
xG 0.61–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:37
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Shore – Lauko – Khusnutdinov5:27
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Trenin – Ohgren7:36
xG 0.18–0.82 (18%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill9:59
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin11:29
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Brodin – Middleton2:14
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie10:37
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Frederic – Wahlstrom – Poitras8:03
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm8:52
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Brazeau – Kastelic – Beecher5:59
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlo – Callahan11:56
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei12:50
xG 0.90–0.87 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Peeke14:36
xG 0.39–0.80 (33%)attempts 13–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).