Tue, Feb 4, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 19 | 18 | 229 |
| BUF | 16 | 214 | 01 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07BUFBowen ByramAssists: Jason Zucker, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 1:47CBJKent JohnsonAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:17BUFAlex TuchAssists: Dennis Gilbert, Bowen Byram · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 18:56BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 12:38CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Damon Severson, Luca Del Bel Belluz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:03BUFDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:07BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:55CBJDamon Severson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danforth won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Johnson – Del Bel Belluz10:14
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese8:59
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Labanc – Pyyhtia8:32
xG 0.06–0.30 (16%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Voronkov – Sillinger – Fantilli13:28
xG 0.27–0.62 (30%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Harris13:23
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Johnson – Provorov2:31
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov2:20
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Quinn – Benson5:26
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Cozens – Benson3:39
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Quinn – Peterka – Kulich7:32
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Peterka – Rosen – Kulich6:25
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram11:53
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Bryson – Byram3:18
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power3:42
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).