Tue, Feb 4, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 16 | 19 | 04 | 02 | 3 | 321 |
| PIT | 09 | 18 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:43NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Ondrej Palat · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 9:14NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 14:56PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 7:53PITKevin HayesAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Rickard Rakell scored
- 2. NJD Paul Cotter scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
- 5. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
- 6. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 7. PIT Anthony Beauvillier scored
- 8. NJD Dougie Hamilton scored
- 9. PIT Kevin Hayes stopped
- 10. NJD Tomas Tatar stopped
- 11. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 12. NJD Luke Hughes stopped
- 13. PIT Cody Glass stopped
- 14. NJD Timo Meier scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:18NJDBrett Pesce: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:55NJDCurtis Lazar: Interference2 min
- P2 3:57PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:56PITCody Glass: Holding2 min
- P2 8:56NJDErik Haula: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:42PITRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:46NJDOndrej Palat: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:37PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:37NJDPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Noesen – Meier2:25
xG 0.13–0.00 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Haula – Meier – Mercer7:25
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes9:28
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Tatar – Lazar – Bastian5:06
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Hamilton3:39
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – Kovacevic4:56
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler2:29
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Bunting – Glass8:22
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell10:14
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Beauvillier – Tomasino7:30
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Imama – Acciari – Lizotte3:32
xG 0.01–0.02 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Desharnais9:50
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk16:49
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph13:07
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).