Tue, Feb 4, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 0, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 011 | 04 | 025 |
| VAN | 08 | 115 | 28 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:26VANJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 8:20VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Filip Hronek · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 19:51VANDrew O'ConnorENAssists: Filip Chytil, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.58 xG0–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:50VANPius Suter: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:04COLKeaton Middleton: Holding2 min
- P1 15:25VANDrew O'Connor: Holding2 min
- P1 19:08COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:59COLMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:59VANDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:00COLMiles Wood: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:00VANElias Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:00COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30COLMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P3 12:30COLMiles Wood: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:30COLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30COLMiles Wood: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:35COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas13:27
xG 1.73–0.46 (79%)attempts 27–10goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – Drury6:13
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta4:32
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Drouin – Mittelstadt – Parssinen4:46
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:24
xG 1.55–0.87 (64%)attempts 28–17goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard6:52
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Middleton – Malinski4:51
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Garland – Pettersson4:32
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Blueger – Karlsson – Hoglander7:59
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Joshua – Suter – Sherwood6:11
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Boeser – Chytil – O'Connor7:08
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Pettersson2:42
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Soucy – Pettersson8:01
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Forbort – Hronek8:06
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).