Wed, Feb 5, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 2, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 04 | 26 | 07 | 217 |
| NYR | 08 | 16 | 28 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:07NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 15:03BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:19BOSElias LindholmAssists: Brad Marchand, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 5:27NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: K'Andre Miller, Jonny Brodzinski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 11:54NYRChris KreiderSHGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:41NYRRyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36BOSMorgan Geekie: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:01BOSAndrew Peeke: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:12NYRVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P3 3:25BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:02NYRMatt Rempe: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:22
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm10:50
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher4:26
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Geekie – Poitras2:28
xG 0.00–0.24 (1%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Lohrei14:21
xG 0.89–0.52 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Peeke13:04
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Carlo – Callahan11:32
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Vesey – Rempe6:11
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Panarin10:13
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Smith – Trocheck – Lafrenière8:47
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Kreider – Brodzinski – Cuylle7:19
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:12
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Miller – Jones2:09
xG 0.04–0.00 (97%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Schneider10:42
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).