Thu, Feb 6, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Vegas Golden Knights 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 217 | 115 | 340 |
| NJD | 05 | 04 | 16 | 115 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:09VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Brayden McNabb · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 11:18VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 4:06VGKJack EichelAssists: Noah Hanifin, Zach Whitecloud · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 15:43NJDOndrej PalatPPAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:01NJDJack Hughes: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:27NJDSimon Nemec: Holding2 min
- P2 15:45NJDNathan Bastian: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:33VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:10NJDPaul Cotter: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Olofsson – Eichel12:30
xG 1.59–0.59 (73%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Hertl – Dorofeyev – Holtz9:26
xG 0.54–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Rondbjerg8:31
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Saad – Howden8:30
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud14:59
xG 1.23–0.31 (80%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:25
xG 0.92–0.34 (73%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague15:02
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Dowling – Noesen – Cotter8:02
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Lazar – Bastian7:34
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes10:45
xG 0.30–0.74 (29%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Haula – Meier – Mercer9:24
xG 0.09–1.05 (8%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pesce2:19
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton8:51
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Dillon – Nemec2:47
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).