Thu, Feb 6, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 14 | 27 | 418 |
| PHI | 17 | 26 | 09 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:31PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:07WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:17WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Jakob Chychrun · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:23PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Emil Andrae, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 11:19PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Rodrigo Abols, Jamie Drysdale · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 6:23WSHLars EllerAssists: Taylor Raddysh · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 12:05WSHJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: John Carlson, Taylor Raddysh · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:03WSHRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:41PHIEmil Andrae: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:11PHIErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:47WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaucher won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Raddysh – Frank7:33
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome11:00
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime10:39
xG 0.07–0.63 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas9:48
xG 0.08–0.73 (10%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun6:21
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Roy – Fehérváry12:27
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
- Roy – Chychrun4:12
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster11:52
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Couturier – Abols – Michkov10:45
xG 0.46–0.42 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 2–2
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Gaucher6:16
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Laughton – Richard – Konecny8:58
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Andrae11:40
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York15:30
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Andrae2:01
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).