Thu, Feb 6, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Utah Hockey Club 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 011 | 211 | 07 | 14 | 333 |
| CBJ | 13 | 19 | 09 | 01 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Jordan Harris · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 2:06UTALawson CrouseAssists: Josh Doan, Michael Kesselring · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 12:33UTAOlli MaattaAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Liam O'Brien · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 19:21CBJIvan ProvorovSHAssists: Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:27UTADylan GuentherGWGAssists: Connor Ingram · Snap, 0.34 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:00CBJMathieu Olivier: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:26CBJDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:26CBJDamon Severson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:26UTAMichael Kesselring: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:59UTAMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min
- P3 9:41UTAJack McBain: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:38CBJZach Werenski: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Del Bel Belluz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – Hayton – Guenther10:51
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan7:55
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller11:46
xG 0.94–0.92 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Stenlund8:29
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Kesselring12:44
xG 0.82–0.03 (97%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Marino – Sergachev13:16
xG 1.00–0.52 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Marino2:19
xG 0.02–0.19 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVoronkov – Johnson – Fantilli14:55
xG 1.35–0.58 (70%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese9:45
xG 0.44–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sillinger – Del Bel Belluz9:23
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov19:53
xG 1.14–0.56 (67%)attempts 23–20goals 0–0
- Harris – Christiansen4:14
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Severson – Mateychuk13:07
xG 0.50–0.51 (49%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).