Fri, Feb 7, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 4, Los Angeles Kings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 18 | 212 | 02 | 0 | 430 |
| LAK | 112 | 211 | 113 | 01 | 2 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11LAKWarren FoegeleAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 19:58DALMatt DucheneAssists: Brendan Smith, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:16LAKKevin FialaAssists: Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 9:29DALThomas HarleyAssists: Cody Ceci, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:43LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Quinton Byfield, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 6:53DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 9:41DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 11:40LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Trevor Moore · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 3. LAK Kevin Fiala scored
- 4. DAL Matt Duchene stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:41LAKJacob Moverare: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:22DALMason Marchment: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00DALBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00LAKTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:47LAKAdrian Kempe: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:47DALOskar Bäck: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSteel – Bäck – Stankoven5:45
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Bourque2:33
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Benn – Bourque – Johnston4:30
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque3:01
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Dumba12:13
xG 1.27–0.68 (65%)attempts 29–12goals 1–1
- Lindell – Bichsel15:39
xG 0.30–0.75 (29%)attempts 7–22goals 2–1
- Ceci – Harley17:26
xG 0.46–1.10 (30%)attempts 17–26goals 1–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Byfield – Laferriere13:13
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Jeannot2:24
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Danault – Foegele – Moore13:08
xG 0.70–0.52 (58%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Lewis – Jeannot – Thomas4:43
xG 0.00–0.22 (1%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Gavrikov21:13
xG 1.41–0.61 (70%)attempts 38–23goals 3–2
- Moverare – Spence9:57
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Spence6:19
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).