Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 4, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 16 | 27 | 422 |
| MTL | 08 | 014 | 012 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:43NJDJesper BrattGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 12:44NJDPaul CotterAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 1:53NJDJack HughesAssists: Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 10:09NJDLuke HughesAssists: Timo Meier, Dawson Mercer · Slap, 0.05 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:51MTLMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:57NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Holding2 min
- P2 19:52NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:24MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44NJDLuke Hughes: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes8:21
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Dowling – Noesen – Cotter11:42
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Tatar – Lazar – Bastian9:06
xG 0.12–0.64 (16%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Meier – Mercer9:35
xG 0.08–0.89 (8%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Kovacevic13:35
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton13:22
xG 0.49–0.81 (38%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Hughes – Nemec17:01
xG 0.67–1.53 (31%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Dach – Newhook11:12
xG 0.95–0.16 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Beck9:59
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:33
xG 0.60–0.62 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Laine8:29
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMailloux – Hutson16:15
xG 1.73–0.87 (67%)attempts 21–17goals 0–2
- Matheson – Carrier13:11
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj14:24
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).