Sat, Feb 8, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 116 | 211 | 438 |
| BOS | 212 | 16 | 06 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 13:49BOSNikita ZadorovUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 15:09VGKMark StonePPAssists: Shea Theodore, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 15:07BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 19:26VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Noah Hanifin, Brett Howden · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 4:54VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 18:50VGKTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:24BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:24VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:24BOSOliver Wahlstrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:24VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:30BOSJohn Beecher: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:28BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:24VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:50BOSPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:09BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Dorofeyev5:06
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Stone – Saad – Howden6:42
xG 0.96–0.45 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Hertl – Lavoie – Dorofeyev4:21
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Rondbjerg7:31
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague14:56
xG 1.27–0.60 (68%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud14:59
xG 0.59–0.58 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- McNabb – Theodore16:20
xG 0.98–1.07 (48%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – Lindholm12:49
xG 1.04–0.62 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Pastrnak – Frederic – Poitras2:17
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher4:29
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Geekie – Poitras2:06
xG 0.04–0.09 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Peeke10:33
xG 0.95–0.39 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Zadorov – Carlo5:48
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy4:10
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).