Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 111 | 217 | 440 |
| CBJ | 210 | 111 | 04 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56NYRArthur KaliyevAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Mika Zibanejad · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:31CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:29CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Jack Johnson, Zachary Aston-Reese · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 6:38NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Adam Fox, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:17CBJJames van RiemsdykAssists: Damon Severson, Cole Sillinger · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 1:57NYRUrho VaakanainenAssists: Will Cuylle, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 18:21NYRWill CuylleGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 6:09NYRVincent Trocheck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:09CBJDamon Severson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Danforth
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Carrick – Rempe6:49
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Vesey – Panarin11:37
xG 0.51–0.70 (42%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kaliyev11:05
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle11:11
xG 0.59–0.86 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren18:59
xG 1.01–0.66 (61%)attempts 25–14goals 2–1
- Vaakanainen – Schneider13:38
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Borgen – Miller17:06
xG 0.52–1.07 (33%)attempts 26–20goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestOlivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese12:42
xG 1.04–0.62 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sillinger – Del Bel Belluz8:49
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Kuraly – Pyyhtia – Fantilli3:46
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Voronkov – Johnson – Fantilli17:22
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mateychuk15:07
xG 1.01–0.47 (68%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Johnson – Harris2:01
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Johnson – Christiansen9:42
xG 0.63–0.68 (48%)attempts 9–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).