Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 4, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 213 | 17 | 19 | 429 |
| NSH | 210 | 28 | 25 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57NSHTommy NovakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:26NSHBrady SkjeiAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 15:21BUFBowen ByramAssists: Jason Zucker, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 18:25BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Zach Benson, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:31NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 15:13NSHBrady SkjeiAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 17:43BUFAlex TuchAssists: Bowen Byram, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 6:58NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 12:30BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 19:24NSHJonathan MarchessaultENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:42BUFAlex Tuch: Interference2 min
- P2 10:50NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:50BUFDennis Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:16BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:06NSHJustin Barron: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:40NSHBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – McLeod – Benson3:24
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Krebs – Cozens – Quinn9:54
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – McLeod10:35
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Lafferty – Krebs – Benson3:37
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram14:08
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 18–7goals 3–0
- Clifton – Bryson6:13
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Dahlin2:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Nyquist – Sissons4:56
xG 0.37–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt9:13
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Marchessault – Forsberg8:44
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Sissons – Novak – Kemell3:38
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Josi11:29
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
- Josi – Blankenburg2:25
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Skjei – Barron2:59
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).