Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 010 | 05 | 212 | 11 | 328 |
| CGY | 09 | 113 | 17 | 00 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:22CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 6:37CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Daniil Miromanov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 13:12SEAShane WrightAssists: Adam Larsson, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 15:19SEAAndre BurakovskyAssists: Shane Wright · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 2:58SEAMatty BeniersPPGWGAssists: Vince Dunn, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:52SEAEeli Tolvanen: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:55CGYMartin Pospisil: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:33CGYKevin Rooney: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:21CGYDaniil Miromanov: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00SEATye Kartye: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:41CGYMorgan Frost: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – McCann – Wright9:11
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers15:00
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:18
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Stephens – Tanev – Kartye6:18
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn16:01
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Larsson – Oleksiak4:55
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dunn – Mahura2:39
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Rooney – Pospisil4:51
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Frost – Farabee – Sharangovich10:43
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Hunt10:58
xG 0.50–0.47 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Coronato12:14
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov17:52
xG 1.04–0.33 (76%)attempts 26–15goals 2–0
- Andersson – Solovyov15:23
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Bean – Pachal13:13
xG 0.22–0.50 (30%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).