Sat, Feb 8, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 8, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 316 | 26 | 312 | 834 |
| SJS | 25 | 010 | 112 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 2:46SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Will Smith, Andrew Poturalski · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 3:02DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 10:08DALJason RobertsonAssists: Mathew Dumba, Lian Bichsel · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 13:24DALMason MarchmentAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 7:30DALMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Thomas Harley, Wyatt Johnston · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 15:42DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 11:20DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Oskar Bäck, Colin Blackwell · Tip-in, 0.11 xG6–2
- P3 12:33DALThomas HarleyAssists: Esa Lindell, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–2
- P3 13:00SJSWalker DuehrAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.16 xG7–3
- P3 13:37DALJamie BennAssists: Lian Bichsel · Wrist, 0.12 xG8–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:06SJSTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min
- P1 7:16DALLian Bichsel: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:58SJSWill Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:41DALLian Bichsel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Dellandrea
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Bäck – Johnston3:22
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Bourque9:33
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Stankoven4:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Stankoven3:39
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Bichsel14:45
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 21–9goals 3–0
- Ceci – Bichsel2:19
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Ceci – Harley2:10
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Eklund – Celebrini11:21
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Poturalski – Zetterlund – Smith13:40
xG 0.76–0.83 (48%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Grundstrom – Dellandrea – Duehr6:36
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 6–14goals 1–3
- Goodrow – Kunin – Graf11:15
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren2:14
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Mukhamadullin9:59
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Thompson18:40
xG 0.70–0.68 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).