Sun, Feb 9, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Utah Hockey Club 5, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 39 | 111 | 07 | 00 | 1 | 527 |
| WSH | 214 | 010 | 215 | 03 | 0 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10UTAJosh DoanAssists: Jack McBain, Connor Ingram · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 1:42UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Dylan Guenther, Nick DeSimone · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 3:47WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 7:07UTAJack McBainAssists: Michael Kesselring, Josh Doan · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P1 12:38WSHPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 2:47UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 4:49WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 18:29WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 2. UTA Nick Schmaltz scored
- 3. WSH Aliaksei Protas stopped
- 4. UTA Clayton Keller stopped
- 5. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:15UTAOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:39UTAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:29WSHBrandon Duhaime: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – Hayton – Guenther9:07
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Stenlund10:09
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan11:31
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller13:08
xG 0.44–0.82 (35%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Kesselring14:30
xG 0.74–0.59 (55%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Maatta – DeSimone13:49
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Marino – Sergachev18:23
xG 0.68–1.17 (37%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – Protas7:10
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas7:31
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime5:41
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Raddysh – Frank5:04
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin6:26
xG 0.82–0.12 (87%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin8:48
xG 0.73–0.54 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Roy – Chychrun2:27
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).