Sat, Feb 22, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Edmonton Oilers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 17 | 03 | 318 |
| PHI | 19 | 413 | 110 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Scott Laughton, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 7:06EDMJohn KlingbergAssists: Ty Emberson, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 9:31EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Matt Savoie, John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 1:45PHIOwen TippettUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 7:13PHISean CouturierAssists: Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 8:34EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 12:26PHIOwen TippettGWGAssists: Matvei Michkov, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P2 15:37PHIAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 17:01PHIRasmus RistolainenENAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 14:20EDMJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:15EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:34PHINoah Cates: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Draisaitl – Savoie3:43
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:28
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – Podkolzin – Savoie4:54
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Perry – Skinner – Janmark3:28
xG 0.12–0.20 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Nurse6:15
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Kulak4:13
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson3:32
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Michkov8:44
xG 1.31–0.25 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 4–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster12:40
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Laughton – Konecny – Kuzmenko12:28
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Poehling – Pelletier9:29
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula13:42
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Sanheim – York19:37
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Seeler – Drysdale14:42
xG 0.93–0.96 (49%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).