Sat, Feb 22, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 17 | 217 | 13 | 439 |
| DET | 18 | 115 | 15 | 02 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Andrew Copp, Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:41DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–2
- P2 8:05MINVinnie HinostrozaPPAssists: Matt Boldy · Bat, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 0:22DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 13:07MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:29MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Marco Rossi, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 3:35MINMarco RossiGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P2 5:05MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:09DETJustin Holl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:40MINMatt Boldy: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:40DETAndrew Copp: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:40MINMatt Boldy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:22MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 4:53DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:51MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:43DETMoritz Seider: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:43MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:43DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:22MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Zuccarello – Boldy – Rossi13:04
xG 0.39–0.57 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Ohgren7:03
xG 0.05–0.51 (10%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Shore – Trenin – Khusnutdinov7:21
xG 0.20–0.67 (23%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hinostroza – Eriksson Ek8:00
xG 0.33–1.07 (24%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber2:46
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin14:05
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Merrill9:13
xG 0.28–0.67 (30%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Rasmussen – Soderblom3:44
xG 1.14–0.08 (93%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Rasmussen – Veleno – Soderblom3:25
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper10:13
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – Berggren4:57
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson12:00
xG 1.48–0.23 (86%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider16:46
xG 0.90–0.59 (61%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson13:47
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).