Sat, Feb 22, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 2, Buffalo Sabres 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 210 | 010 | 228 |
| BUF | 516 | 010 | 37 | 833 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46BUFJack QuinnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:58BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Jordan Greenway · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 15:32BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: JJ Peterka · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P1 17:33BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–4
- P1 18:21BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 5:29NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 11:25NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Adam Fox, J.T. Miller · Bat, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 3:47BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jiri Kulich, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–6
- P3 5:40BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Jason Zucker, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–7
- P3 19:24BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Zach Benson, Dennis Gilbert · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:50NYRSam Carrick: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:32NYRReilly Smith: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:20BUFBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22BUFBeck Malenstyn: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:31BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Brodzinski – Rempe5:10
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Miller – Panarin2:29
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:22
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kaliyev6:31
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren12:02
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Borgen – Miller16:28
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Vaakanainen – Schneider13:28
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 7–16goals 0–3
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Cozens – Quinn8:24
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Thompson – Peterka – Kulich13:16
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Benson6:07
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – McLeod6:48
xG 0.27–0.46 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram14:53
xG 1.07–0.45 (70%)attempts 16–13goals 3–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:26
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Jokiharju12:32
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).