Sat, Feb 22, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 111 | 010 | 132 |
| NSH | 09 | 16 | 12 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:15COLSam MalinskiAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Juuso Parssinen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 1:45NSHJustin BarronAssists: Colton Sissons, Cole Smith · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 9:11NSHJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Luke Schenn, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 12:25NSHBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:36COLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas16:57
xG 1.29–0.28 (82%)attempts 22–7goals 0–1
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta9:55
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – Drury9:27
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Drouin – Mittelstadt – Parssinen10:49
xG 0.35–0.78 (31%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar19:26
xG 1.40–0.34 (81%)attempts 28–12goals 0–1
- de Haan – Middleton11:50
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Girard – Malinski15:57
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista8:42
xG 0.66–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Sissons – McCarron – Smith7:55
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Nyquist – Svechkov10:23
xG 0.22–0.50 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Marchessault – Forsberg13:57
xG 0.23–0.80 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Barron11:59
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Josi – Barron3:46
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Josi15:28
xG 0.97–1.28 (43%)attempts 13–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).