Sat, Feb 22, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 39 | 28 | 08 | 525 |
| OTT | 210 | 08 | 09 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:28MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Arber Xhekaj, David Savard · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 13:20OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 15:54OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 16:13MTLPatrik LainePPGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 5:14MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 11:32MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jayden Struble · Slap, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:33MTLJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:09OTTCole Reinhardt: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:25MTLPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:13OTTDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:47OTTRidly Greig: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:47MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:44OTTCole Reinhardt: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:44MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:04MTLAlexandre Carrier: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:33
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 21–11goals 2–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:40
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook10:08
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman10:38
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson14:20
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Savard – Xhekaj11:51
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Matheson – Carrier15:23
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 12–23goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Stützle3:47
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle2:30
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Gregor – Reinhardt – Ostapchuk2:10
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Gaudette2:27
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Sanderson2:44
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Kleven6:30
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Chabot – Matinpalo3:40
xG 0.09–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).