Sat, Feb 22, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Vancouver Canucks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 110 | 019 | 134 |
| VGK | 013 | 112 | 210 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:22VANJake DeBruskAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 11:02VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Victor Olofsson, Kaedan Korczak · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 0:18VGKBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Brett Howden · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:29VGKTomas HertlENAssists: Brett Howden, Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.79 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:37VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:48VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:49VANTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:08VGKIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:16VANFilip Hronek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:16VANFilip Chytil: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:11VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Chytil – O'Connor11:30
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter8:37
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Blueger – Hoglander – Aman8:47
xG 0.53–0.91 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Sherwood10:28
xG 0.31–1.25 (20%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Hronek3:02
xG 0.57–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Hronek – Pettersson2:44
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Forbort – Hronek9:22
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Olofsson – Eichel9:33
xG 1.06–0.22 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Stone – Saad – Howden12:21
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Hertl – Lavoie – Dorofeyev8:27
xG 0.49–0.67 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy8:09
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud13:16
xG 1.08–0.19 (85%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- McNabb – Korczak12:36
xG 0.98–0.50 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague14:03
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).