Sun, Feb 23, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Seattle Kraken 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 011 | 018 | 18 | 137 |
| TBL | 07 | 110 | 37 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:27TBLBrandon HagelSHAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Emil Lilleberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 11:15TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 12:58TBLLuke GlendeningAssists: Cam Atkinson, Michael Eyssimont · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 15:24SEAShane WrightAssists: Brandon Montour, Josh Mahura · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:14TBLNick PaulENAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.80 xG1–4
Penalties (1)
- P2 9:11TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Stephenson – Kakko2:52
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tanev – Beniers2:29
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Stephens – Tanev4:36
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Wright9:05
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn18:19
xG 1.17–0.87 (57%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Mahura – Evans11:22
xG 0.47–0.50 (48%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Montour18:41
xG 0.44–1.32 (25%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Chaffee – Goncalves10:44
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel12:16
xG 0.65–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point15:16
xG 0.75–0.65 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Glendening – Eyssimont7:15
xG 0.14–0.43 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak15:25
xG 1.04–0.24 (81%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Moser – Lilleberg2:14
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg12:15
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).