Sun, Feb 23, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 08 | 013 | 129 |
| STL | 08 | 39 | 08 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49COLDevon ToewsAssists: Cale Makar, Artturi Lehkonen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:45STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 14:13STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 19:50STLDylan HollowayAssists: Justin Faulk, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:47STLNathan Walker: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:47COLParker Kelly: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:49COLLogan O'Connor: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:49STLNathan Walker: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:50STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – Drury6:16
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta3:46
xG 0.01–0.01 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Necas – Drury – Kiviranta2:09
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas9:08
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Malinski4:05
xG 0.12–0.04 (78%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- de Haan – Kylington7:30
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kylington – Girard3:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours12:25
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway12:11
xG 0.69–0.45 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko7:05
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc4:04
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Broberg17:52
xG 1.09–0.19 (85%)attempts 24–11goals 2–0
- Fowler – Parayko15:11
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Leddy15:44
xG 0.26–0.61 (30%)attempts 9–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).