Sun, Feb 23, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 317 | 27 | 530 |
| CHI | 110 | 110 | 07 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:49CHITeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 7:09TORNick RobertsonPPAssists: Max Domi, Bobby McMann · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 9:45TORJake McCabeAssists: Chris Tanev, Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 19:45TORNick RobertsonGWGAssists: Max Domi, Steven Lorentz · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 19:53CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Frank Nazar, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 12:07TORChris TanevAssists: Jake McCabe, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 18:28TORPontus HolmbergENAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Deflected, 0.79 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:22TORChris Tanev: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:16CHISeth Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:46CHICraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:28CHILandon Slaggert: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies10:34
xG 0.67–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann8:34
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Steeves7:32
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann2:31
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly16:21
xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Timmins – Benoit12:44
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe17:05
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Kurashev – Nazar10:30
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Teravainen – Mikheyev11:03
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Smith – Bedard2:48
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Donato – Slaggert – Bedard10:11
xG 0.11–0.37 (22%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Jones12:57
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
- Jones – Vlasic3:28
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Allan11:58
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).