Sun, Feb 23, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 013 | 18 | 229 |
| CGY | 114 | 113 | 19 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 7:27CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Morgan Frost, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:35CGYKevin RooneyAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Martin Pospisil · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 1:54SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: William Eklund, Shakir Mukhamadullin · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 13:28CGYJoel HanleyGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:47SJSHenry Thrun: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:44CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
- P1 16:12SJSJake Walman: Interference2 min
- P2 11:38CGYMorgan Frost: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:58SJSWilliam Eklund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:04SJSNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:49SJSTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
- P3 12:49CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:04SJSHenry Thrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:11SJSWilliam Eklund: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:11SJSWilliam Eklund: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Eklund – Celebrini8:24
xG 0.81–0.36 (69%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Wennberg – Zetterlund – Smith7:43
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Kunin – Sturm – Graf7:50
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Duehr6:03
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Thrun8:56
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Walman – Thompson3:13
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin2:20
xG 0.27–0.01 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lomberg – Rooney – Pospisil6:08
xG 0.33–0.32 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Frost – Farabee – Sharangovich6:58
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary10:07
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Coronato8:57
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley13:12
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bean2:21
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bean – Pachal9:47
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).