Mon, Feb 24, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 16 | 08 | 03 | 01 | 118 |
| WPG | 010 | 010 | 113 | 12 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:07SJSWilliam EklundPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith · Slap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 19:34WPGJosh MorrisseyUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 1:33WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:13WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:13SJSJack Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:31WPGAdam Lowry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:46WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:22WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:59SJSJake Walman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:49SJSMacklin Celebrini: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Wennberg – Zetterlund – Smith8:32
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Grundstrom – Dellandrea7:34
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini13:13
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Kunin – Sturm – Graf9:35
xG 0.40–0.59 (41%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Ferraro2:47
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Mukhamadullin3:30
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Thompson7:53
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:04
xG 0.82–0.21 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:46
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi15:00
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Kupari – Gustafsson3:50
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey19:46
xG 1.67–0.51 (77%)attempts 28–10goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk13:05
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 23–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Stanley7:58
xG 0.10–0.41 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).