Tue, Feb 25, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 16 | 313 | 12 | 529 |
| BOS | 215 | 110 | 19 | 02 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Mason Lohrei, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:59BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei · Snap, 0.33 xG0–2
- P2 10:00BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 13:52TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Matthew Knies, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 0:59TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 6:40TORNick RobertsonAssists: Morgan Rielly, Anthony Stolarz · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 10:33BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:14TORPontus HolmbergAssists: Nick Robertson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 4:08TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:32BOSOliver Wahlstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:45TORMatthew Knies: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:23BOSJohn Beecher: Holding2 min
- P2 2:10TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:08TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:30BOSMason Lohrei: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:53TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:21TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:22TORMatthew Knies: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:04BOSOliver Wahlstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Robertson – Knies5:09
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Holmberg10:36
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Domi – Robertson – McMann2:54
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Steeves4:29
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit2:14
xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Timmins3:40
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Rielly – McCabe3:37
xG 0.04–0.09 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – Lindholm11:17
xG 0.89–0.36 (71%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:34
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Pastrnak – Geekie – Poitras2:47
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Frederic – Wahlstrom – Poitras2:03
xG 0.02–0.03 (39%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Carlo13:03
xG 1.19–0.36 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Peeke – Lohrei11:42
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Wotherspoon – Peeke3:55
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).