Tue, Feb 25, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 06 | 09 | 020 |
| MTL | 28 | 12 | 18 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:05MTLJuraj SlafkovskýGWGAssists: Jayden Struble, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:37MTLPatrik LaineAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Alex Newhook · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 10:04MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 10:22MTLLane HutsonPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.01 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:40MTLArber Xhekaj: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:18CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min
- P2 2:55CARShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:39CARBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:04CARMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:04MTLArber Xhekaj: Interference2 min
- P3 10:08CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:55MTLEmil Heineman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRobinson – Kotkaniemi – Blake2:34
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Aho – Blake2:36
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Roslovic – Svechnikov9:06
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis2:46
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield12:54
xG 0.90–0.23 (80%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin10:52
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Slavin – Walker3:44
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Heineman9:15
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský9:36
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:56
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Laine – Newhook – Beck9:00
xG 0.15–0.53 (22%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson11:48
xG 0.86–0.43 (66%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Matheson – Carrier14:37
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Matheson – Struble2:02
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).