Tue, Feb 25, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
New York Rangers 5, New York Islanders 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 35 | 26 | 07 | 518 |
| NYI | 19 | 014 | 014 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22NYRUrho VaakanainenAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:19NYIAlexander RomanovAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:39NYRJonny BrodzinskiGWGAssists: Braden Schneider, Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 19:12NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 11:21NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Urho Vaakanainen · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 16:30NYRMatt RempeAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Ryan Lindgren · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–1
Penalties (2)
- P2 3:55NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min
- P3 3:16NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Smith – Carrick – Vesey11:46
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Brodzinski – Rempe – Othmann9:07
xG 0.38–0.42 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 3–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle10:50
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:25
xG 0.53–0.94 (36%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren10:02
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Borgen – Vaakanainen2:59
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Borgen – Lindgren8:33
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Duclair – Horvat13:26
xG 0.76–0.04 (95%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Tsyplakov10:38
xG 0.57–0.22 (73%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Engvall – MacLean – Gatcomb11:05
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Palmieri – Nelson – Holmstrom14:18
xG 0.53–0.94 (36%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Boqvist17:32
xG 1.52–0.32 (83%)attempts 34–9goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov16:19
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Pulock – Perunovich13:55
xG 0.39–0.74 (35%)attempts 13–22goals 0–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).