Tue, Feb 25, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Seattle Kraken 2, St. Louis Blues 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 04 | 014 | 29 | 227 |
| STL | 214 | 411 | 12 | 727 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04STLJordan KyrouAssists: Cam Fowler, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:48STLOskar SundqvistPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 5:10STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Jake Neighbours, Philip Broberg · Bat, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 8:23STLZachary BolducAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 9:45STLCam FowlerAssists: Dylan Holloway, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–5
- P2 11:55STLJake NeighboursAssists: Cam Fowler, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–6
- P3 0:20STLZachary BolducAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Oskar Sundqvist · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–7
- P3 5:13SEAVince DunnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–7
- P3 12:09SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:40SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:00STLRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:10SEAAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:11STLRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Beniers13:01
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
- McCann – Tanev – Wright3:38
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Eberle – Stephens – Tanev3:09
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – McCann – Wright2:37
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:21
xG 0.77–0.57 (58%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Oleksiak – Mahura8:22
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans11:08
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours12:07
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:48
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:01
xG 0.13–0.18 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc10:53
xG 0.39–0.64 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Broberg16:23
xG 1.01–0.25 (80%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Suter – Leddy15:37
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Fowler – Parayko14:18
xG 0.41–0.83 (33%)attempts 11–11goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).