Wed, Feb 26, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 213 | 118 | 19 | 440 |
| OTT | 011 | 111 | 02 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 9:03WPGMason AppletonGWGUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–0
- P2 8:04WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 8:53OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 17:04WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:57WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:57OTTArtem Zub: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:57WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:41OTTTyler Kleven: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:41WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:51OTTNikolas Matinpalo: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:18OTTNikolas Matinpalo: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:18OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Broken stick2 min
- P2 10:54OTTJake Sanderson: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:21WPGMason Appleton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greig won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi11:31
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Kupari – Gustafsson7:30
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:33
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:56
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 6–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Stanley11:48
xG 1.44–0.34 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:48
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Samberg – Pionk18:13
xG 0.53–0.74 (42%)attempts 19–23goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Highmore – Greig2:16
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Crookshank – Stützle6:14
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Amadio – Highmore – Gaudette8:31
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gregor – Jenik – Crookshank3:01
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:26
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sanderson2:06
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot2:29
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).