Wed, Feb 26, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
New Jersey Devils 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 010 | 16 | 123 |
| COL | 111 | 013 | 413 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 2:57COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 8:28NJDJack HughesAssists: Luke Hughes · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 14:14COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Martin Necas · Bat, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 16:40COLCasey MittelstadtAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Ross Colton · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 18:18COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Parker Kelly, Miles Wood · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:30COLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:10NJDStefan Noesen: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:13NJDJack Hughes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:24COLMackenzie Blackwood: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 1:29NJDLuke Hughes: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:53NJDOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Tatar – Meier – Hischier3:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer4:01
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Haula – Noesen – Mercer2:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Bastian – Cotter5:45
xG 0.02–0.06 (27%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes3:52
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Hughes – Casey5:29
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Pesce – Kovacevic9:34
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas15:27
xG 0.99–0.55 (64%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Drouin – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt12:52
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Wood – Kelly – O'Connor5:36
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Colton – Drury – Kiviranta7:59
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Girard10:23
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar18:02
xG 0.83–0.71 (54%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- de Haan – Kylington4:16
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).