Thu, Feb 27, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
San Jose Sharks 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 27 | 110 | 07 | 02 | 326 |
| MTL | 213 | 06 | 112 | 12 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Will Smith, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 6:49MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 12:38SJSNico SturmAssists: Klim Kostin, Collin Graf · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 19:04MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Lane Hutson, Jayden Struble · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:21SJSWill SmithAssists: Shakir Mukhamadullin, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 2:22MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Patrik Laine, Owen Beck · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 3:21MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Samuel Montembeault · Snap, 0.35 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:20SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:20MTLJayden Struble: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:54SJSCollin Graf: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:48SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Eklund – Celebrini16:20
xG 0.98–0.47 (68%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Wennberg – Zetterlund – Smith13:18
xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Kostin – Sturm – Graf6:41
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Kunin – Dellandrea10:27
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren3:58
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin13:49
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Walman – Ferraro2:46
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Armia – Evans – Heineman9:39
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Laine – Newhook – Beck8:53
xG 0.76–0.73 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:14
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:58
xG 0.33–0.90 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Hutson2:04
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Savard – Xhekaj8:06
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Struble – Hutson11:08
xG 0.46–0.49 (49%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).